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H2H: WILL ANY DRIVER EVER REACH 76 WINS AGAIN?

525 Views 16 Replies 13 Participants Last post by  TheNeonEmpire


Jimmie Johnson has tied Dale Earnhardt's premier series mark of 76 wins with his win Sunday at Atlanta.
It's an impressive accomplishment and moves "Six-Time" into a tie with the "Intimidator" for seventh place on the all-time wins list.
Johnson's historic effort makes us wonder: Will anyone reach 76 wins again? Ever?
Join NASCAR.com's Brad Norman and George Winkler in this debate, and vote in the poll in the link below with your opinion.

Norman: George, I think we can probably agree that almost all active full-time Sprint Cup Series drivers are out of the running, right? Tony Stewart has 48 wins, and then guys like Matt Kenseth (36), Kyle Busch (34) and Kevin Harvick (31) trail him. That's too far back. Someone like Joey Logano is the most likely to get there, but I'm going to say no, no one will ever win 76 races again. It's just too difficult, and there are too many elite drivers at all levels of NASCAR for someone to win that many races over a long period of time.

Winkler: It is a huge mountain to climb, that's for sure. But when Michael Jordan was piling up points with the Chicago Bulls it was difficult to envision someone like Kobe Bryant or LeBron James coming along and being just as dominant. James isn't equal to Jordan in championships, but the point is you never know when a sport's next phenom will enter the picture. Could it be Logano or Chase Elliott? Or could it be someone we haven't even considered yet? Heck, maybe it's someone who hasn't even been born yet. That's the beauty of sports, the unpredictability, and never knowing when the next great one will emerge and capture our attention.

Norman: Wait, did you compare LeBron to Jordan? That's a whole different debate. Back in 2002, no one knew Johnson would be this good -- and now he's at 76. That is true. But I think the sport has changed since then, and will continue to change and evolve. It's a different time and a different era. Drivers talk now about the toll racing takes on their bodies, and the celebrity of being a NASCAR driver brings with it so many opportunities outside of racing -- movies, entertainment, broadcasting. It wouldn't surprise me to see top drivers begin retiring earlier and earlier and joining Jeff Gordon in the booth.

Winkler: Racing can take a toll on the body, but with all the science and nutritional information drivers have at their disposal in this era, they might be able to have longer careers if they want to do it. When you look at what great shape drivers like Johnson are in, it's not a stretch to think other drivers could adopt similar fitness regimens and could perform at the top of their game deep into their 40s. You know what they say, 50 is the new 40 and 40 is the new 30.

Norman: Sure, but I think the final nail in the 76-win coffin is something I've already brought up -- the next wave of talent coming through the ranks. Logano. Elliott.Kyle Larson. Austin Dillon. Ty Dillon. Erik Jones. Darrell Wallace Jr..Ryan Blaney. Chris Buescher. Daniel Suarez. Ben Rhodes. That's just the beginning. Every new generation will bring loads of talented drivers for NASCAR, a once-regional sport turned national turning global. I see lots of five-or six-win seasons for all of those guys; enough for a handful of 50-win careers. No more.

Winkler: True, there is not a more competitive form of racing than NASCAR, and that makes it tough to dominate and rack up wins like Johnson did in his run of consecutive championships. But to quote the great Jedi master Yoda, there is another, and the force is strong within him. Returning to your original argument, perhaps we should not rule out the active drivers so quickly. If Kyle Busch, who is 30, averages three wins per season over the next 10 years, then that will put him on the doorstep with 64 wins. So let's make it a date, Brad: 2025, you, me, a couple of beers and a head-to-head debate on whether 'Rowdy' can get it done.

H2H: Will any driver ever reach 76 wins again? | NASCAR.com
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Someone like Logano who started really young probably has the best chance for things like that, but who knows


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Obviously the odds that any one Cup series driver will find that success of 76 wins is slim, especially when it has been reached so few times. I won't say it will never happen. Just that it will not be super likely.
Kyle Busch is likely the only current driver who could do it, but he'd have to get on a tear and with 4-5 races a year for the next 10 years. Even being like 5 years younger I don't see Logano getting to 76. What JJ has done is very special. We have only seen a handful of elite drivers reach or exceed 76 wins.
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No, it won't happen again. It took Johnson 509 races to do it. It took Gordon 481 races to do it. We're looking at averaging over 5 wins a year for 15 years. We haven't seen a rookie come out of the gate and knock down multiple wins right off the bat in a long, long time. You basically have to start winning right away and keep winning on a routine basis throughout your career to have a shot at 76. Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth and Earnhardt Jr won't ever come close to it because they had too many lulls in their career. You can't go through any lulls. That's why I don't see anyone hitting 76.
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Ever again? Of course it will. It just won't happen any time soon.
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No, it won't happen again. It took Johnson 509 races to do it. It took Gordon 481 races to do it. We're looking at averaging over 5 wins a year for 15 years. We haven't seen a rookie come out of the gate and knock down multiple wins right off the bat in a long, long time. You basically have to start winning right away and keep winning on a routine basis throughout your career to have a shot at 76. Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth and Earnhardt Jr won't ever come close to it because they had too many lulls in their career. You can't go through any lulls. That's why I don't see anyone hitting 76.
Pretty much this. Even someone as talented as Kyle Busch has had 4 single win seasons. He is incredibly talented and he can't even have multi win seasons every single season like Johnson. Then you have Joey who had 2 great seasons sure, but how do we know he can keep it going? People were saying similar stuff when Kasey had that 6 win season and Ryan had an 8 win season. Until Logano proves he can do it year after year after year i won't think even he can pull it off.

Jimmie Johnson has had only 1 season of 2 wins and every other season has been 3 wins or more including a monumental 10 win season. I honestly don't even see someone getting 10 wins in a season again for a long long time. What we've seen from Jimmie is something i don't see any active driver touching.
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G
Someone like Chase Elliott could do it and then some.
Kyle Busch or Joey Logano has a shot. They have won races and are still relatively young.
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No one in their wildest dreams would have guessed Jimmie Johnson was going to reach it when he was announced to drive a fourth Hendrick car in 2002. Go back to 2002 and ask this question, most people would probably say someone like Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kevin Harvick, or Kurt Busch. Johnson has about as many wins as all of them combined.

It will happen again I'm sure, but it may not necessarily be one of the big-name young guns like Chase, Blaney, or Erik Jones.
I was thinking about this the other day. It wouldn't surprise me if Kyle Busch or Joey Logano reach that many wins.
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Kyle Busch could easy. Harvick & Kenseth are too close to the end of their career.

People saying Logano need to chill out and people saying Chase Elliott REALLY need to chill out lol
Kyle Busch could easy. Harvick & Kenseth are too close to the end of their career.

People saying Logano need to chill out and people saying Chase Elliott REALLY need to chill out lol
Why? Are you one of those people that's still in denial of Loganos skill and ability to win multiple races? I'm not saying he's 100% going to win 76 but it's not some far fetched claim that he will get up there


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I'll defend Logano here. He's 25 and has 14 wins. Earnhardt and Johnson had 0 wins at that age and Gordon had 19. It is entirely within the realm of possibility that Logano wins 76.
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I can easily see either Kyle Busch or Joey Logano getting 76. Both have a lot already and have at least 10 years left to rack up wins.

If there's anybody else, we haven't even seen them get their first win yet.
It is certainly possible for Logano. In this era of NASCAR I'm not sure I see him hitting double-digit win season's and dominating the way Gordon, Johnson, and Earnhardt have done. He is 25, so time is still on his side at least.

Gonna do some math here, mostly because it is a slow day at work. He needs 62 more wins. Let's say he races until he is 43 like Jeff. He will need to average about 3.5 win's per season at that rate.

But obviously there are many other factors included. Can Penske stay competitive through his entire career, when will Logano begin to decline, etc. I'm not sure I would bet on Logano to hit it, but it isn't out of the question.
Why? Are you one of those people that's still in denial of Loganos skill and ability to win multiple races? I'm not saying he's 100% going to win 76 but it's not some far fetched claim that he will get up there


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What does he have like 10-15 wins maybe? Its pretty damn early for people to be saying he's got a good chance of getting to 76. He has had 2 good seasons nut we have seen a lot of drivers have 2 good seasons and then fall off. Now if he wins 15+ total races over the next 3-4 years we can talk.

...and for Chase Elliotts name to be mentioned in this thread is ridiculous, considering he has 0 wins.
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