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Sure things and long shots in Sunday's Sprint Cup Vegas show

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By Tom Jensen

It's Vegas, baby! Sin City is always one of the favorite stops for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and Sunday's Kobalt 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (FOX, 3 p.m. ET) ought to be a wild and rowdy affair.
With NASCAR's new low-downforce setup in place and wind gusts of up to 40 miles per hour expected on Sunday, the drivers will have their hands full. That should make for an entertaining event.
Las Vegas is, of course, one of the world's great gambling meccas, a place where every vice can be indulged. So for the big race, we'll roll the dice with three sure things and three long shots to win on Sunday.

Long shot -- The Richard Petty Motorsports team has shown improvement so far this year, as witnessed by the pace of Aric Almirola, who qualified seventh on Friday in the No. 43 RPM Ford. Almirola wasn't great in Happy Hour, but he could surprise in the race.

Sure thing -- The two Team Penske Fords were great on Friday, but not so much on Saturday. Still, Joey Logano will start Sunday's race on the outside of Row 1 and he's developed into a consistent threat to win pretty much every week.

Long shot -- I'm not sure it's fair to call Martin Truex Jr. an underdog, but he will be one of the drivers to watch on Sunday. Truex and the No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota qualified 10th and were 10th in Happy Hour.

Sure thing -- The No. 41 Stewart-Haas Chevrolet has been fast all weekend. And, driver Kurt Busch will start from the pole, giving him the advantageous first pit stall. Busch is a Vegas native, too, so he's got that going for him.

Long shot -- For the first time in a long time, the Richard Childress Racing Chevrolets have speed. Austin Dillon qualified fifth and was second in Saturday morning's first of two practices. In Happy Hour, Dillon had the best 10-consecutive-lap average speed. Vegas would be a great place for him to get his first career Cup win.

Sure thing -- For my money, Matt Kenseth remains the man to beat. Fastest in Happy Hour, Kenseth has led more laps and has had a better average finish here than anyone else. Plus, after disappointing finishes at Daytona and Atlanta, he'll be fired up. Kenseth already has three victories here, so a fourth wouldn't be a surprise.

Sure things and long shots in Sunday's Sprint Cup show at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
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